This report is the first part of two year research. We try to identify environmental policy task from year 2014 to 2023, by analyzing socio-economic trend. Also we planed to design policy to face those tasks. The research consists of four steps: (1) Socio-economic trend analysis (2) Identification of environmental policy task. (3) Scenario set up (4) design environmental strategy to face new challenges. In first year, we work on the first two steps.
On first step, we analyzed social and economic trends. On social trend analysis, we focused on population related issues - population growth, population aging, urbanization, and growing income gap. Also, we devide economic trend analysis into three parts: production, consumption, globalization. In production part, we covered economic growth, industry composition, energy, and agriculture. In consumption part, we covered consumption pattern change following income growth. In globalization part, we covered the growth of various transportation.
Regarding social trend, environmental burden due to population growth would be lessened because the population growth itself would slow down. But, the urban area such as motor ways would expand gradually, and that would increase environmental burden. Also, environmentally less protected population would grow because of rapid aging and growning income gap.
In production part among economic trends, we found that the environmental burden would grow because of gradual economic growth, manufacture-dominated industry structure, fossile-fuel demand increase, and the growth of meat production. Sinc