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Project Reports
A projected population exposed to future hot weather events considering the Korean society with low birth rate and rapid aging : for supporting regional policy measures
The increasing risk of heat waves in Asia, including Korea, is a significant threat associated with climate change, as mentioned in the IPCC Fifth Report (AR5). In Korea, heat waves have been notably stronger in summer since 2010, and in 2018, the heatwaves in Korea were historic.
Moreover, a severely low birthrate and aging in the Korean society are expected to make it more vulnerable to heat waves in the future.
This study quantitatively projected changes in heat wave patterns in Korea and used quantitative indicators for the expansion of heatwaves intensity (exposed area, changing in frequency, etc.) in the future.
By applying the methodology to estimate future population, we analyzed population exposure to heat waves at the level of local government, including population structure.
As a result of an analysis the climate change scenario (RCP4.5) by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) by decadal unit, the increase in the daily maximum temperature in July in the 2030s is expected to be great.
If the above climate scenario comes to pass and average monthly maximum temperatures exceed 30 degrees centigrade - a two-degree increase compared to the 2020s - there are concerns that extreme heatwave temperatures in August may increase by 1.8 degrees in the 2050s. In particular, temperature increases in eastern, southeastern and southwestern Korea will be relatively higher.
May temperatures (for which projected heat waves are rare, even in the 2050s) are rising faster than June temperatures, for which an increase of 1.9 degrees centigrade is projected. An increase in the