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Research Reports
Study on quantifying risk of the effects of climate change(II) : focusing on Korean coastal system
We have quantified the risk of changes in the coastal system due to future climate change by multiplying the probability density function(PDF) of the IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) climate change scenario with a pdf ensemble modeling of inundation and its consequence to provide robust and scientific basis for adaptation policy in Korea. The probability density function adopted here is Jevrejeva et al.(2014) with a range of 95% probability of sea level rise up to 1.8m, the Coastal Modeling System(CMS) of the US Army Corps Engineers was used for inundation quantification with an increment of 1cm sea level rise by setting Masan Bay that had been seriously affected by Typhoon Maemi(2003) as the target area, and the Multi-Dimensional Flood Damage Analysis was used to estimate the cost of inundation damage as the consequence component of risk assessment. The preliminary results show inundation and its damages to coastal human system are considerable. Calculated risk function reproduced the probability density function of climate change very closely, which reveals that the coastal system is quite vulnerable to current extremes such as Typhoon, and the vulnerability will be increased with future climate change. We have also found that the high vulnerability in the coastal system is closely correlated with reclamation areas. These characteristics could imply high vulnerability of many man-made coastal systems in Korea considering that a massive area has been reclaimed in the past. The risk quantification framework of the stu