This study mainly compares and analyzes land-use and land-cover changes in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) on the Korean peninsula and in parts of the German Green Belt (GB). The Korean peninsula and Germany have the historical similarity that they have both experienced divisions of the state. The DMZ has been emplaced between South Korea and North Korea since 1953. In the past, there was a strongly fortified border zone called the “Death Strip” or the “Iron Curtain” between East Germany and West Germany. In 1990, after German reunification, the area was converted into the so-called “Green Belt” and is still conserved systematically to the present day. However, no systematic conservation measures yet exist for the DMZ.
Our 2018 study analyzed landscape changes in the situation of the separated Korea and Germany. In this follow-up report, the landscape changes are compared and examined under the condition of reunification. Unlike in the case of Germany, the Korean peninsula has not yet been reunified, so it is necessary to apply a predictive modeling approach to forecast future land-use and land-cover changes and infer the future situation systematically. The introduction of land-use scenarios in the application of modeling techniques has the advantage of simulating multiple futures, given that the DMZ’s future is too unclear to consider only one prediction. In contrast, it has been already 30 years since the German reunification. That is, for the German case, a predictive modeling approach is not required, so a change detection analysis can be applied instead.
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